A recent peer-reviewed study highlights a lesser-known risk faced by cocoa production in the face of heavy rainfall, rather than the commonly focused heat and drought threats. This research, led by Anna Lea Albright at Harvard University, points out that extreme rainfall poses the strongest weather risk to cocoa cultivation.
In recent years, cocoa prices have surged, with a tonne now priced around $6,000 US, a significant increase from the $2,000 to $3,000 US range seen since 2014. This spike, peaking over $12,000 US in 2024, was influenced by various factors, including severe flooding in West Africa, the world’s leading cocoa-growing region supported by over two million farmers.
Leslie Agyare, founder of Three Mountains Cocoa in Ghana, expressed the challenges faced due to heavy rainfall affecting crop management and harvest. The study, focusing on Ghana as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, emphasized that extreme rainfall during flowering significantly impacts yields more than temperature variations.
Moreover, the research highlighted the link between heavy rains and increased fungal infections, leading to lower yields. The authors also noted a climate signal showing intensified rain events during the wet season due to warmer air holding more moisture. Despite El Niño typically reducing extreme rain risks in West Africa, it raises concerns about droughts, exacerbating the challenges faced by cocoa farmers.
The study also underlines non-climactic risks such as aging trees and illegal activities like gold mining, which further threaten cocoa production. While acknowledging the importance of the study’s findings, experts like Sophia Carodenuto from the University of Victoria stress the need for interventions like fungicides and improved drainage systems to mitigate fungal diseases’ spread.
Agyare advocates for substantial infrastructure investments to address challenges faced by cocoa farmers, emphasizing the need for better post-harvest processes and centralized collection and processing to prevent losses during heavy rains. The increasing climate shocks are making cocoa farming less attractive in West Africa, raising concerns about the future of smallholder farmers and potential shifts towards cocoa-free chocolate alternatives.
Companies like Nestlé have ventured into cocoa-free chocolate partnerships, aiming to create more resilient supply chains. The rise in cocoa prices may not translate to better prospects for cocoa farmers, who have historically borne the brunt of underpricing in the chocolate industry. The study sheds light on the pressing need for sustainable solutions to safeguard cocoa production in the face of climate challenges.
