The World Meteorological Organization has announced that the El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen further and could potentially become the most powerful ever recorded, leading to heightened risks of extreme weather conditions throughout the upcoming year. The Secretary-General of the WMO, Celeste Saulo, emphasized that if the current trend continues, the intensity of this El Niño event may surpass all previous records over the past four decades.
According to the United Nations weather agency, there is a nearly 100% certainty that El Niño will persist until February 2027 due to exceptionally warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This level of certainty is unprecedented, marking a significant development in forecasting capabilities.
A severe El Niño event has the potential to disrupt global rainfall and temperature patterns, contributing to the occurrence of severe weather phenomena such as typhoons. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres highlighted the unprecedented scale of the current El Niño event, stating that the planet is experiencing uncharted territory with rising temperatures.
El Niño is characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, resulting from weakened trade winds. It typically occurs every two to seven years and can last up to 12 months, causing erratic weather patterns including intense rainfall and droughts across Latin America.
The ongoing El Niño event has already impacted agricultural production in tropical regions, leading to a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO predicts that the peak of this El Niño event will occur later this year, with lasting effects expected into 2027, contributing to higher global temperatures.
Secretary-General Saulo emphasized the importance of enhancing preparedness and early warning systems in anticipation of the prolonged impacts of El Niño. The WMO is collaborating closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian sectors to provide essential climate intelligence for disaster management and climate-sensitive industries like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.
