A recent poll indicates a close competition for Toronto’s mayoral race, with the top two contenders running neck and neck just three weeks before the election. In the survey by Mainstreet Research, incumbent Olivia Chow holds a slight lead over Coun. Brad Bradford, with 40.8% support for Chow and 38.3% for Bradford after Chris Alexander exited the race. The poll highlights that 10% of voters remain undecided.
Among decided and leaning voters, the gap between Chow and Bradford has narrowed to 2.9 points, emphasizing a tight contest as the election draws near. The poll, conducted on October 6 and 7, reflects the intense competition in the final stretch, according to Quito Maggi, Mainstreet Research’s president and CEO.
Maggi expressed that Bradford’s campaign seems to be gaining momentum, indicating a less certain path to re-election for Chow as the race progresses. The statistical tie between the two candidates, as per the poll results, suggests that relative voter turnout will play a crucial role in determining the outcome.
The latest poll results mark a shift from Mainstreet’s previous poll at the end of September, where Chow held a six-point lead over Bradford. Bradford’s campaign has accused Chow of resorting to scare tactics leading up to the election, emphasizing the need for change in leadership.
Responding to Alexander’s withdrawal from the mayoral race, the poll asked voters to choose between Bradford and Chow, with the current mayor leading at 44.7% support compared to Bradford’s 41.5%. Support dynamics are tightening as the election approaches its conclusion.
The survey also inquired about public perceptions regarding the reliability of the TTC and concerns about traffic congestion in Toronto. Mainstreet’s data reveals a gender and age divide in candidate support, with Chow leading among female and younger voters, while Bradford garners more support from older and male voters.
The poll, which sampled 1,000 Toronto residents through interactive voice recording, was weighted to align with 2021 census targets. It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. With advance polls underway and election day looming, the city’s website provides a comprehensive list of Toronto’s 53 mayoral candidates for voters to consider.
