Russia has seen a significant increase in its oil exports through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026, surpassing last year’s numbers by almost 50%. Approximately 20 million barrels have been transported to Asia from July to mid-October, according to traders and data analysis.
The NSR, connecting Russia’s western ports to Asian markets through icy Arctic waters, is usually considered a more perilous and costly route. However, disruptions in other key routes like the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea have made the NSR more appealing this year, as stated by traders.
Due to conflicts in regions such as Iran and Ukraine leading to inflation and limiting access to U.S. crude oil for Asian refiners, tanker freight rates have surged to record levels. This situation has driven Asian refiners to seek alternatives from the Middle East and Latin America, making the higher tariffs for using the NSR, which necessitates icebreaker support, more cost-effective compared to the traditional Red Sea route to Asia.
For Russia, which has control over the NSR, this route offers a secure alternative to European waters, where tankers carrying Russian oil have faced frequent detainments this year. Traders’ initial estimates suggest that the volume of Russian oil shipped through the Arctic route is expected to increase by an additional five to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Gazprom Neft, a major Russian oil company, plans to boost its NSR shipments by approximately 35% this year compared to 2025, according to CEO Alexander Dyukov. Russia also exports a substantial amount of liquid natural gas (LNG) to Asia through the NSR, with expectations of further growth this year following the commencement of Arctic LNG shipments.
During an economic forum in Vladivostok in September, President Vladimir Putin expressed Russia’s anticipation of doubling cargo turnover via the NSR to 70 million tonnes annually by the decade’s end. The inauguration of Rosneft’s expansive new oil project, Vostok Oil, in northern Russia has already contributed to the escalating volumes utilizing the NSR.
