The Toronto Blue Jays are in the midst of their baseball season’s final stretch, aiming to secure a spot in the post-season following their World Series appearance last year. After a 6-5 loss to the Detroit Tigers on Monday, the team has 11 games remaining, and several key factors are worth monitoring in the upcoming fortnight.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays’ star slugger, is displaying promising signs of a potential breakout. Recently, he hit his first home run of the season at Rogers Centre during a stellar 4-for-5 performance that earned him a standing ovation from the crowd. Guerrero entered the Detroit series with impressive September stats, boasting a .333 batting average and an .898 OPS in 12 games. While his overall season numbers are below his career averages, his current form suggests he could heat up akin to his performance last October.
The American League appears weaker this season, potentially benefiting the reigning AL champions. A .500 record might be sufficient to clinch division titles in the West and Central divisions, given the competition’s mediocrity. The race for the third wild-card spot is tight, with Detroit securing the spot last year with an 87-75 record. The Blue Jays, with a 75-75 record, are closely trailing the Cleveland Guardians in the hunt for the final playoff berth.
Toronto has been relying heavily on bullpen days due to injuries to starting pitchers. However, reinforcements are on the horizon, with Trey Yesavage scheduled to return after a six-week absence following knee surgery. Shane Bieber is also progressing in his recovery from a shoulder injury, while slugger Anthony Santander could make a comeback later in September.
In the event of tiebreakers, the outdated “Game 163” system has been replaced by MLB’s set criteria to determine playoff spots for teams with identical records. The Blue Jays currently hold the tiebreaker advantage over the Guardians due to a superior head-to-head record. However, if Cleveland wins the Central division and Chicago secures the wild-card spot, the White Sox hold the tiebreaker edge over Toronto.
Despite slim playoff odds in late July when the team was 10 games below .500, the Blue Jays have significantly boosted their chances by winning 11 of their last 17 games. Furthermore, their upcoming opponents, including Detroit, Texas, Baltimore, and Cincinnati, all have sub-.500 records. As of Monday, FanGraphs gives Toronto a 43.4% chance of making it to the post-season.
