A recent opinion poll conducted by Quorus Consulting Group revealed that incumbent Mark Sutcliffe is leading the race for mayor with a single-digit advantage over three-term city councilor Jeff Leiper, as the election day approaches within a week. The survey, released on Monday evening, indicated Sutcliffe at 28%, Leiper at 24%, Neil Saravanamuttoo at 7%, and Alex Lawson at 4%. However, a significant portion of respondents (one-third) either expressed uncertainty, indicated they would not vote, or preferred not to disclose their choice. Among voters with a preference, Sutcliffe holds a 7-point lead over Leiper, with respective percentages of 42% and 35%.
The online survey was conducted from October 8 to 15, involving 807 randomly selected Ottawa residents. Notably, 4% of respondents favored candidates other than the top four contenders, while this figure rose to 6% among those expressing a preference. Quorus, a reputable market research firm with ties to the federal government, emphasized the independence of the survey, highlighting that it was not commissioned by any election campaign.
Quorus also delved into the top issues influencing voters, revealing that housing, affordability, and the cost of living were the most significant factors driving voting decisions at 20%. Transit followed closely at 15%, with taxes, budgets, and fiscal management at 12%, competence, leadership, and integrity at 11%, and roads, infrastructure, and traffic at 10%. Crime, public safety, and policing lagged behind at just 3%.
Overall, the latest poll results suggest a tighter competition between the leading candidates compared to previous surveys. While Sutcliffe’s lead has diminished, he still maintains a considerable advantage that could potentially secure his re-election, as stated by Doug Anderson, the executive vice-president at Quorus. The survey methodology included a weighted sample based on census data to ensure a representative reflection of Ottawa’s population distribution in terms of factors such as gender and age.
